129742938969531250_29On February 15 the Choi Chi magazine cover blurbs: February 15 the wealth and wisdom of published magazine cover article, United States insurance actuary is to reject the old statistical models and life tables, rethink the life expectancy of Americans. Life expectancy for Americans is related to evaluate field of life insurance, endowment insurance, amounting to about 27 trillion dollars in assets。
Following are select and translate articles: a 78-year old woman went into the Office of the insurance agent life insurance. "Did you have cancer? "The Deputy asked. "Oh, Yes," she says.
"Breast cancer". "Do you have a family history of heart disease? "" Oh yes, "the woman nodded to say. "When my father was he more than 60 died of a severe heart attack."" Do you have a history of mental illness? "Insurance agent asked. "Oh, Yes," she said. "I accept treatment bipolar mental illness for many years. "" Well, OK. So you say you want a large amount of policy? "He asked. "Us $ 24 million. "" In this case, "the agent said," you can! "If the actuary, belong to the kind of stressing bar jokesMan, this story may be one of them. But in fact, the 78-year old woman who happened to be living human (we'll call her Martha).
And is also true on the matter is the new 20 million dollar life insurance policy – the policy of insurance was Hartford at end of 2010 (The Hartford) for approval. But it is worth noting that is,This is not the surprising part of the story.
Surprising here is that the company's marketing team in Minnesota meibogeluofu is how easy to make such a decision in just 30 minutes – Executive signed the document. Assistant Vice President-David Redpath (David Redpath) explained that, for the insured person for the first time, MarthaCancer experience when she was nearly 60 years old--according to the latest Hartford business guidelines, chances of recurrence of cancer. What about her father died due to heart disease? Don't worry--this woman has so far lived for nearly 80 years, has lived a "danger mark", said Redpath. In fact, according to the calculations of the Hartford and Martha will continue to live on 14.5 years--Mature aged to 92 years of age--the United States Bureau of the Census (u.s. Census Bureau) life tables for the woman of her age to make long expected service life prediction of about 4 years. In the case of paid premiums are set at $ 1 million a year, Redpath calculation, after the investment, Hartford is in on this dealSubstantial profits. At first sight, such a business decision may seem to be just a bold--equivalent to the insurance industry in the poker game of Poker flush.
A 20 million dollar insurance policy, after all, is a big deal, compared with average value was only $ 500,000 by the policy of the Hartford. But experts say taking a deeper look at, you will notice some superMore risk taking than at work; you will see a revolution is brewing. While quietly, but the insurance actuarial data are discarded the old statistical models and life tables. They were completely rewritten about the past "fatal" diseases of the boring stereotypes. They are rethinking the oldest question: how long will we live? They are drawn will be veryMany people described as a radical answer. Refers to this as the new calculus of death, which is to define the 21st century equation of human life. Or, as some critics did, call it misguided speculation. No matter what to call it, is difficult to imagine what has brought more math problems for humans in an extremely difficult situation for a long time. In fact, in 1583, the world's first life insurance policy available to, Actuaries had finding the answer.
More difficult to imagine what interest of the outcome of the mathematical problems involved more than this. So surprisingly large dollar amounts are affected, so to write all of the numbers zero to just take some time. To $ 1.6 trillion for the start, this is United States-current life insurance annuity investment-productsUsually linked to the employer's life. Plus $ 6.5 trillion.
Under the United States Association of investment companies (The Investment CompanyInstitute) data, this is the United States Government and private pension plan amount. According to the famous reinsurance Switzerland reinsurance (SwissRe) and United States investment in publicSecretary of association data, if the American Government forecasts of a current average life increase of just 1 year, after the recent market turbulence has been struggling United States private pension system, suffered about $ 115 billion blow. Now with $ 4.3 trillion (Americans in 401 (k) plans and other defined contribution plans (Defined CoNtribution Plan) of assets), plus the $ 4.6 trillion (Americans in an individual retirement account (IRA) savings), and US $ 10.5 trillion (United States denomination of personal life insurance policies have the force of law), you start to have a desperate feeling. Apart from social security (Social Security) Problem--itself is a 14-digit $ calculus problem--and deaths tied to the size of the pool of money is about 27 trillion dollars. However, don't let this astronomical size fool you. This particular mathematics not only is big government and big business to solve the challenge. This is also a very smart individual challenges. As to human lifeExpected changes in life and change, then people's retirement scheme should also be changed--and, of course, and this change may have the answers to various questions with which general direction from the decision (how much money you need to save for later years? ) To the meticulous planning (you can afford to maintain two sets of House? Pay-daughter wedding whether it is meaningful for you?
)。 Experts sayAfter all, for life to 4 per cent higher than the current life expectancy of extra years to prepare, a man, 50 years old at his or her current retirement savings would need nearly $ 160,000 to maintain life. Assuming historical returns and inflation continued to increase the mass savings, may indicate that additional savings $ 2,500 a year. Terrible,What do you say?
The current volatile stock market, as well as millions of Americans born during the baby boom after World War II war is rapidly approaching retirement is taken into account, draw death calculus answers to questions can be said to be more urgent than ever. What Americans ' retirement policy will not be affected, United States Department of social security (Social Security AdmInistration) Stephen-C-, the Chief Actuary he (Stephen c. Goss) can only think of one person in mind: "Bill Gates," he said. And for the rest of the Americans, the answer to the question is very critical. This is why a growing number of academic forecasters--from among Actuaries and other mathematical modeling toBiostatistics, medical sociologist and futurist – all in an effort to try to solve this problem of 27 trillion dollars. To understand the Hartford's latest thinking on the issue, must travel from the headquarters of the company is located in the suburbs of Minneapolis reached 1000 miles north of Asheville kaluolaina mountain. In the early morning hours, if you're on the Hill on the rightWandering on the trail, you are likely to see a white man lightly jogging around you in the past.
Robert p Peter glaskowsky (Robert Pokorski) he set the alarm clock at 5 o'clock in the morning – a day but the alarm clock has never had. "That's when I always had it," he said, he first read medical and other journals, and then started running. It isThe man, doctor and philosopher, 59 years old, master of business administration and Buddhist practitioners in kaluonalai--home office--he was in the depths of the jungle continues to change the manual of Hartford. This great big Guide to almost every new blood tests, diagnosis and medication guide – and the fact that the insurance company is definedEach variables in the calculus of death--it now has more than 2,000 pages in length. The company's Executive Vice President Brian Murphy (Brian Murphy), Percy Peter glaskowsky in 2010 was appointed as the company's life insurance Division Chief healthcare strategist, Percy Peter glaskowsky I do not bear any responsibility on all of these changes, but the manualThe overall impact has been enormous. Percy Peter glaskowsky and other physicians from all medical literature research and data to prove that heart disease and several forms of cancer is no longer, as it had, "mark of death". For example, in 1995, people with advanced coronary artery disease in men are categorically cannot be insured. Clogged arteries can be expected nowTo simply fix and plaque accumulation is often available for new drug control, thereby has a smaller impact on life expectancy only. Hartford is faced with the situation, changes are related to the applicants--hundreds of could not be covered now has covered (or better insurance category). But here is not the main driving force of altruism, and moreTo the company, is a bit on the financial worth of a total hip replacement. Calculated according to the income, 20 years ago, Hartford is the six major life insurance companies throughout the United States, currently ranked 17th. Meanwhile, the collapse in its share price over the past 4 years 78% compared with life insurance and health insurance benchmark index fell 40%. For companies, the economic situation is cruel. But Cooper Peter glaskowskyBelieve, Hartford new routing table of death, most likely in a strange way, a slight competitive advantage to the company. "I think we have some big company possibly overlooked risks," he said. In fact, the company's sales figures to some extent supported his views. Hartford 2011 15% increase in sales in the first half from a year earlier,The industry average is 4%. Competitors were not really subsided. America's fifth-largest life insurance United States wantong (MassMutual) advocates themselves, such as in the assessment of breast cancer survivors when potential customers have also taken a very advanced approach. "I would say we are in the lead," the insurance company Senior Vice President Melissa-Helen Mirren (Melissa mIllan) said. Ranked top of the Metropolitan life insurance company (MetLife) and prudential (Prudential) representatives also said that their underwriting manuals change month by month, as the medical miracles in remodeling treatment.
They said they also focused on the future. Percy Peter glaskowsky Jolly said, people want to obtain guidelines, more is needed to look at the past,Instead of looking to the future. United States average life expectancy has fallen from 47.3 per cent in 1900 to 78.3 years old today.
Although only most of the rise and earlier is the most significant part from the decline in infant and child mortality, but in recent decades of experience are particularly persuasive, Percy Peter glaskowsky says he is older than the decline in mortality. 1940 years every 5 years United States male life expectancy increased by about a year, United States women increase of 1.1 years. He said if Americans just keep the same pattern, then the end of the century the average American life expectancy is close to 100 years old mark. Count number of centenarians will know. United States aged 100 or more persons now had about 53
wot power leveling,000 people, 1950, only 2,300 of them--increased by 2,200%.
At the same time, this period of United States population increased only 1 time. Believe that mankind is at its most significant growth--life--the beginning of philosophy, may is an exciting prospect. But if this argument tell s-Jay-aosishansiji (S. JayOlshansk), he will laugh at you in person (in a friendly way). Aosishansiji, 57 years old taught in University of Illinois at Chicago campus, he was dancing in the online posting of his father for more than 90 years old and say yellow joke video that kind of person. Aosishansiji can think of the most horrendous joke, is that human life is moving towards mashi sub(Methuselah, the characters in the Bible-Genesis, allegedly at 965). Aosishansiji inner sceptical on this point, one of his main belief is that throughout the life of the late industry (insurance companies) the use of traditional actuarial tables have their inherent design flaws. The reason, he said, the actuarial tablesIs based on assuming the past pattern of life will remain unchanged in the future. However, as the General warned on the mutual fund prospectus, past performance and is not a guarantee of the future return. He refuted the Percy Peter glaskowsky thinking mode to the people around the obvious reality of "close my eyes". (Percy Peter glaskowsky responded to this, the obvious is that "over time as expectedLife expectancy continues to increase. ") As far as death algorithm aosishansiji – Yes, he also have a calculus of death-by-far-Perot Peter glaskowsky optimism. Several significant social and lifestyle factors may be easily offset higher growth can be obtained from the medical miracle of life. For example, the current spread of obesity is the greatest life of all constraintsOne of the. In 2008, more than one-third of Americans obese, obesity rates doubled in 1962. Aosishansiji said that this group of obesity many and therefore more vulnerable than in the past, from diabetes to heart disease, a variety of serious health conditions to combat population, is not a sustainable increase in life expectancy over the past century. "Canary in the coal mine is dead,"He said. Since 1984, aosishansiji, has been in this or that form of advertising such views. He was trained to become population statisticians, and later turned to the academic biological. Six years later, he and two colleagues in science (Science) published a landmark study on the article. In this article, he arguesEven finding ways to cure cancer, does not increase the life expectancy of someone. "When I first had the relevant calculation, I do not believe that its results, so I forget it again and again," he said. Aosishansiji conclusion is, no matter how doctors find means of treatment, human will hit the wall of life – in the foreseeable future of average men and women reach the age of 85.(Even if we somehow could find a cure for cancer, heart disease, and "to deal with diseases of all lead us to death, not infectious diseases," he said, we have only reached 90 years of human life expectancy.
) To go beyond this figure, he said, medical scientists must find a way to slow the aging of biological process in itself. So, toWho is closest to algorithms of real at the end of it? For now, it is not yet clear. However
world of tanks power leveling, one thing becomes clearer day after day, that is, if our life calculation error, what will happen. People do not need to look too far, just look at what state pension and savings funds are--they now face a funding gap of us $ 660 billion –Became clear.
Pew Center (Pew Center on theStates) 2010 research shows that United States has 31 States to their obligations should be the amount of financial obligations are not to be provided by 80%. Of course, financial experts said that State workers ' funds, company pension and social security (Social SecuRity) facing problems, and many of today's problems is much the same for individual investors, that is: determines if we "live, but had no money," how big is the risk. In short, what kind of choice financially wiser? Is taking at the age of 90 on the funds run out and have nothing to eat when you lived 10 years of risk, is embracing a more sober view, recognition ofGrowth has its natural limits of the human lifespan, and then figure out a relatively short, but may be more comfortable for your retirement? For some people, if the increase in life expectancy is not that notable, may be a comfort if it means not done right now to invest so much money in the annuity. In this issue, the financial advisers of death point of view than the main calculations are moreMuch more close
world of tanks power leveling, financial advisers, said: regardless of the ultimate life expectancy is roughly how much to prepare for long life. However, guarding himself against the "people still alive, but assets have run out of" risk becoming something greater than the increase in personal savings to more strategic. Such as annuities and other insurance products are playing a greater role in the financial plan. (According to the United StatesData of the Association of investment companies, pension reserves have grown from $ 1 trillion in 2000 to the present level of $ 1.6 trillion. ) And companies continue to develop more products to be known as the "longevity market" of the market. (Grass Mu/compilation) online statement Gold: gold online reprint of the above content, does not indicate that confirm the description, for investor use onlyAnd does not constitute investment advice. Investor operations accordingly, at your own risk.
No comments:
Post a Comment