Exchange settlement for customers to achieve surpluses of $ 3.2 billion

Xie Yaxuan accompanied by deepening levels of economic and financial globalization, international capital flow's influence on China's capital market gradually increased. In the people's Bank of China remains the gradual appreciation of the Renminbi under the conditions of sale and purchase of foreign exchange, an important channel of influence of international capital inflow and outflow by central banks and other financial institutions ' balance sheet expansion and contraction, which in turn caused the baseFoundation of currency and money supply increases and decreases, causing interbank liquidity conditions and fluctuations in interest rates, promote equity and bond markets rose and fell. In fact, since many investors even 2010 7-day repurchase rate among banks as a leading indicator of the stock market reversed. Market for October balance of Foreign Exchange accounts for first appearance after a 45-month growthNegative growth would focus so it is not difficult to understand.����October Exchange does growth mean that capital flight, multi-angle comprehensive forecasts and grasp the trend of international capital flows? Study on the current account and trade balance decision flows of capital between 2001 and the BOP, China, the current account surplus wasThe main source of reserve accumulation, accounting for close to 75%, and under the capital account inflows of 25% per cent of foreign exchange reserves increment. While the body of the trade surplus and current account surpluses. Therefore diablo 3 gold, it can be said that the trade balance determines the basic directions and trends of international capital flows. Change of China's trade balance for supplying overseas have a seasonal Christmas market, generally in July,Goods scale higher trade surplus in October and November. Capital flows lagged goods flow to 1-2 months, September, December and January the following year by the Exchange to scale higher capital inflows. In the past 10 years, November, December and January foreign exchange accounted for incremental Exchange throughout the year to the incremental percentage in 11.4%, and 8.5% diablo 3 gold, respectively,Higher than the average monthly level in other months. Consider the scale of recent and future of China's trade surplus, is expected in November 2011 to March 2012 monthly average exchange incremental between 160 billion and 200 billion, below the normal level.����But unless there are sharp deterioration of the situation in the European debt crisis, sustainable growth of the balance of Foreign Exchange accounts for less likely. Spreads, Yuan riseInfluence capital flows to low-risk of interbank rates, for example, since 2010, the mean value of China's interbank repo rate 7 days is 3%, 0.23% London us $ LIBOR interest rate 7 days to the same period, significant spreads determine the direction of capital inflows. Spreads lasted, on the scale of the expected volatility of capital flows of appreciation, Yuan riseValue expected for Foreign Exchange has a strong predictive power. To look at the market of renminbi non-deliverable (NDF) exchange rate and the spot exchange rate of RMB's appreciation of the difference to monitor expected. There are two main starting point: first, we believe that the foreign exchange market transactions of larger, reflected more fully and effectively; second, Hong Kong is an open economy, foreign exchange ratesInterfere with relatively more realistic. November 2010, the domestic inflation rising and the negative effects of European debt crisis will spread abroad, the Renminbi appreciation is expected to decline from November 2010 yearly appreciation of the currency dropped to 4% in 0.6% and devaluation October. Since the beginning of November, because the domestic GeneralHeaving received some control, the expected depreciation of the Renminbi down to 0.2%. Emerging economies into capital flow observation we can watch other emerging economies in international capital flows in order to assess the short-term fluctuation of China international capital flows. Preferred observation of of international capital flows in Hong Kong, the starting point two: first, Hong Kong is a small open economy, free flow of capital, notUnder the control of the capital; second, Hong Kong and the Mainland in economic and financial integration more, will treat Hong Kong as international capital flowing into China a beachhead. The linked exchange rate system as Hong Kong, international capital flows does not cause the Hong Kong dollar continued to rise, but monitor the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has been able to master the basic direction of international capital flows: strong-side area of the Hong Kong dollar in less than 7.8 mean moneyInflows in the weak-side area of more than 7.8 means capital outflow. The Hong Kong dollar in August and September this year European debt crisis and the United States after the sovereign credit rating was downgraded, many close to the weak side, show capital outflow. In October, although slightly improved, but in November and observed trends in Hong Kong dollar weakened and outflow of funds. Global cool in this heat, we looked at several other representative national andArea of international capital flows, such as one of the BRIC countries of India, representing the newly industrialized countries of Korea, China, Taiwan and so on. As you can see, long hard to put the European debt crisis, United States after the sovereign credit ratings were cut in early August, global risk premiums rise, Korea and China Taiwan capital outflow that showed a significant trend, India was slightly better, but only out of relatively smallAlready. China international capital flow back: United States capital flows around the world, recent international trend of capital outflow in emerging economies, but sizes ranging from. These capital belong where is it? At the end of July to early August United States raising debt ceiling talks failed and the United States during the sovereign credit rating was downgraded, United States capital markets continued outflow of funds in just one month from the ChineseThe outflow of capital in the market of US $ 70 billion. This shows rise in risk factors, a credit freeze and global financial contract. But since the beginning of September, particularly in October, despite the inflow of United States funds in the stock market has continued to reduce, but into the bond market in particular low-risk capital in the bond market continued to rise, United States Treasury yields lower, dollarIndex at the same time strengthens us $ display global superiority as Centre currency. It can be said that United States flows of capital market is emerging economies such as China international capital flow back of the coin: during the crisis or near crisis, lowered the overall scale of international capital flows will be, no one spared; under the high risk premium, limited international capital may need to return for haven United States;In the economic and financial boom, United States and emerging economies, international capital flows are of positive feedback will render a relationship. We believe that the October international capital flows to China's size should have fallen, but financial institutions should not be negative growth of foreign exchange balance of 24.89 billion simply treated as capital flight. The latest data released on November 25, foreign exchangeInitial confirmation that in our judgment, October the Bank received payment for customers to achieve surplus $ 10.9 billion, Exchange settlement for customers to achieve surpluses of $ 3.2 billion, difference between entering foreign exchange accounts, balance of Foreign Exchange accounts in the month than last month, an increase of $ 6.9 billion. This shows the "international capital flight said" basically negative, but we need to combine the forthcoming October people's Bank of China assetBalance sheet and reserves such as more data is more comprehensive and objective analysis.����Under the influence of risk factors such as the European debt crisis, China international capital inflows and foreign currency money occupation may be lower than normal levels of scale, but unless there are dramatic external liquidity shocks, short term change preconditioning to fine-tune the main tone of China's monetary policy is unlikely. (The author of China Merchants securities research and developmentHead of Center for macroeconomic research)