Monday, December 26, 2011

short continues to occupy a clear upper hand

129667889652802892_126Stock indexes continued weak hit this week, but falling resistance characteristics are also evident. On one hand, market constantly vulnerable under the impact of negative messages down, but the reaction is not particularly strong, while market reaction to the positive news is more prosaic, overall, the market cautious wait-and-see attitude dominated. Expected worsening fundamentals and possible furtherLoose policies expected splints condition, market or will continue to render the weak turbulence patterns. People's Bank according to the information published on 21st October Exchange fell nearly $ 25 billion per cent, which was the first time since December 2007, weakening of RMB's appreciation, real estate adjustment situation obviously, domestic Exchange settlement and sales habits of the residents and the European debt crisis caused risk aversionOgata multiple factors such as increased resonance leads to exchange of sequential growth is expected in the devaluation of the Renminbi appreciation is expected to greatly weaken or even expected, European debt crisis may further deteriorate giving rise to increased risk aversion and thus makes the dollar rebound or render further seasonal movements and foreign trade surplus fell back under the overlay of many different factors, such as, Exchange may occur during the year againstBombs, but may be limited. Due to changes in foreign exchange and monetary base related to the increase or decrease, so obvious negative effects on market liquidity, but judging from the market's interpretation of, more inclined to see it as a future reserve overall downward adjustment triggered one of the conditions, actually reinforces expectations that Central Bank will ease monetary policy in disguise. Capital inflowsUnit (eleven-twenty fifths) unit fled to cut meat must regret having sudden boom is not likely in a move investors Gospel: hold stocks saved the old republic power leveling! Central Bank Deputy Governor Hu xiaolian recently proposed, within the macro-prudential policy framework, based on the capital adequacy of financial institutions, stability of the operating conditions and the implementation of the national credit policy, on the adjustment and optimization of control parameters, andFor major services in those areas of small and medium financial institutions right tilt. Media reports Wednesday, Zhejiang Provincial rural credit system allowed directed down 6 or so institutions renminbi deposit reserve rate of 0.5% per cent, Central Bank on Thursday confirmed the message, and said such a move cannot be interpreted as lowered their deposit reserve ratio, is cancellation of the punitive measures. We expect future movementsWill be further under the Central Bank's monetary policy to fine-tune pattern tends to improve. The open market, interest rates on Central Bank on Tuesday to 3.4875% 1-year Central ticket issue 15 billion yuan, with the $ 15 billion in 28-day repo operations, and to 3.1618% interest rates on Thursday issued $ 1 billion worth of the March issue of Central, open market this week due to 530 Yuan, the Central Bank reported net invested $ 22 billion.����Due to the near end, funds for the time being there have been some signs of tension, the Central Bank injected a net detrimental to seasonal pressures ease short-term funds. Released 23rd November preview HSBC manufacturing index from 51 fell sharply last month to 48, after a brief rebound in October again after shrinking, The new orders index decline was particularly sharp, reflecting the needs through a more significant decrease is expected to announced in early December in the mining and Manufacturing PMI index will also be continuing weakness, which reflected the economic downturn clearly emotional repression on the market, but the positive sign is that, after the publication of the data, the market again to switch the focus to the policy could further micro-On adjusting expectations. From the main seat position, weak in the short term pattern more specific context, short continues to occupy a clear upper hand, four short of traditional main futures, guotai Junan securities-stocks, haitong futures once again to the great wall and huatai brings together a large number of empty positions gold short positions prior to a book of heroes by four, and permit futures empty absolute positions in more than 6000, the empty weight of such scale are rare in the history; on the other hand, although the overall limited size, but empty single chips did receive a certain amount of loose swtor power leveling, especially permits in futures markets have become more resilient and guotai Junan Tuesday and Wednesday of the context, there has been a certain level of close up. Overall, in the case of market weakness, short continues to occupy a clear upper hand, futuresLater trend, the guideline is still not optimistic. Overall, current market internal and external negative news bearing capacity enhanced for good news too, is not strong. We believe that the policies and expectations of further improving liquidity remained strong but before the policy is significantly clearer context, technical weaknesses and uncertainties in the external environment will be short-term inhibit market long on enthusiasm,Markets and policies to improve internal and external uncertainties expected splint State continuation of weak turbulence patterns, to wait for the central economic work Conference in early December on the market is expected to make more specific guidelines, currently we are particularly reminded investors not to overreact to negative message, context in the policy has been fine-tuning adjustment, worsened the fundamentals of information will be more intensive market onPolicies may further loosen the expected as well as on the market some support. Futures operations strategy, we recommend investors to short-term actions in the near future, and should not be too high fell and killed, while the middle line can do more or less bargain ad risk control layout.

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