129838017192031250_63Shawn Xu: economic downturn not regardless of the policy in the second half to reverse
Figure: Shawn Xu, an economist at the China Europe International Business School professors, famous "2012 top 500 foreign trade enterprises in China Forum", China Europe international business school, a famous economist Professor Shawn Xu (microblogging), trustworthy growth in an economic decline again placed before the restructuring is a repeat of 09 fate, was kind of thirst, the effect is non-Limited, but further deterioration in GDP structural imbalances in the short term.
He believes that regardless of the policies adopted in the second half, will not reverse the economic downward trend gradually. He pointed out that the enterprise behind the lack of demand for loans is the lack of reaction of new investment opportunities, lack of profitable investment opportunities, when we see a large iron and steel company invested heavily is notBuilt of steel, but a pig when you know what degree of excess capacity has seriously. He pointed out that the quarterly expansion of monetary policy not only does not solve the problem, instead of creating illusions for enterprises, enterprises that rely on strong measures of the Government, can ride out the storm. Enterprise is busy expanding capacity, scrambling to compete in the market share, gave up the opportunity of transformation. ManyEnterprises in regret if 08 it once was to leverage internal and external pressure to seriously do a good transition, not so called today.
Speech at Shawn Xu, particularly referred to the Government on civil capital alike when you want, many times interrupted by spontaneous applause of participating entrepreneurs. Following Xiao-Nian hui to speak memoir: Shawn Xu: members of the fellow countrymen, members of the business communityFriends, good evening. Back home, mood is happy, also very honoured to have the opportunity here to China's economy and foreign trade and the countermeasures in the form of an Exchange with you. We are here today is the top 500 foreign trade enterprises launches, but so far I regret to see on stage speeches by government officials is scholar, protagonist of our foreign trade enterprisesNo one to speak here. I think we are 30 years reform and opening up has created a powerful export zhuanxiang export-oriented industries, the formation and development of the industry is not a Government-led
Diablo 3 gold, nor scholars talk about, but an enterprise. So I hope that our policy focus turned to enterprise level, academic level, only the development of these enterprises, outside of ChinaTrade can develop. We all know that the current situation very serious, now shrinking international markets, declining international economic growth, actually 08 financial crisis continues, not some secondary aspect, but 08 global financial crisis exposed the seriousness of China's economic structural defects, continuing outburst. Our problem is not resolved,Even worse, today's situation. Economic growth this year will gradually decline, regardless of what kind of policy taken by the Government, I will not change the downward trend. Because it is only on the macroeconomic regulation and control, rather than on the micro-control seriously. In response to 08 years of financial crisis
Diablo 3 CD-KEY, 09 launched a great expansion of the financial policy, you know the 4 trillionAnd put so many resources just for several months on the bomb, several months of increases in GDP, we now see a shot that after playing, have revealed structural problems. Quarter expansion of monetary policy not only does not solve the problem, instead of creating illusions for enterprises, enterprises that rely on strong Government measures to ride out the storm. Businesses are busy expandingForce, scrambling to compete in the market share, gave up the opportunity of transformation.
Many enterprises in regret, if 08 had the time to leverage internal and external pressure to seriously do a good transformation, not so called today. When the economy is down again today, we reproduce the good old days, trustworthy growth prior to the restructuring, I personally think that, regardless of the policies adopted in the second half,Will not reverse the economic downward trend gradually. Because today's non-09 financial year comparable local budgets is very tight. You can pull as much GDP? is very limited. And we now see the grant projects are in the Government's own circle of overcapacity. In large steel mills, for example above. We have excess iron and steel industry, why invest capitalGold? Not to adjust the economic structure of China rather than GDP further deterioration of the structural imbalances in the short term. This is the thirst of the policy. Its effects are very limited and will cause great harm to the long-term development of the Chinese economy. In an economic downturn, people are concerned about the Central Bank's monetary easing. I think that even if the Bank's monetary easing at this time, there will not be any effect,Because today we have to recognize that corporate reactions behind the lack of demand for loans is the lack of credible investment opportunities, lack of profitable investment opportunities.
When we see a large iron and steel companies investing heavily not to build steel, but a pig when we know what degree of excess capacity has seriously. If short-term then expansionary monetary policyBoost demand, further deterioration of the consequences are excess capacity, for the future of China's economic structural adjustments more difficult. What we urgently need now is to rethink the policy of stimulating domestic demand, it must be changed from steady growth policy on the level of the Centre of gravity adjustment, on the regulation in the first place, not to repeat, do not further delay, drag cannot be adjusted, a situationCould be envisaged. Several leaders, told several friends some how to change the unfavourable situation of foreign trade, these views I was in favour of the enterprises to go out, to research and development, innovation, these countermeasures here, I think, you know, don't need I repeat. My question is, why do these strategies as we all know, until now no serious fallsReal? Why is that? Where is the reason? I think the key is in the system environment, mainly because of our enterprise business environment has not been fundamentally improved. To truly promote restructuring, I think it is imperative that institutional reform, rather than irritation of the new policy introduced. As long as your system right, companies know how to deal with difficulties. But the problemIn the enterprise, I observed the two problems, first is the macro-policies for illusions, also on the sidelines, in the hope that the Government can turn things around like 09. I would like to say to business, 09 then a lot of money and no change. Now in the case of Government funds expansion of space is very limited, impossible to go the reins, enterprises must loseFantasy, your transformation really well, really do the upgrading of products, technologies and services.
We've run out of time, we have wasted much time, now is no time to waste. In addition to macro-control policies beyond illusions, another reason is that enterprises do not have to actively do upgrade, because our system environment.I here emphasize the viability of private enterprises and the institutional environment, in recent years, Guo Jinmin back trend was growing, folk psychology of hatred of the enterprise are own property do not have access to effective protection, so our businesses do not do long term investment, not to do the long-term upgrading of preparations, is still keen on some fast track approach for projects,The traditional price competition to maintain their market share. To our enterprise truly able to make breakthroughs in innovation and research and development, to strengthening the protection of property rights, enterprise security, equal to enterprise environments, otherwise he is not going to upgrade, because upgrading to long-term plans, to invest a great deal of resources, not saying a Word can do it, does not mean thatGovernment calls for a sound, economists up can do. First, to strengthen the protection of property rights, private enterprises, including foreign-funded enterprises and State-owned companies have equal conditions of competition. On the legal, policy, market access, access to funds on top, on resource consumption to be treated equally. Does not need to support policy. China 30 years reform and opening up, we have had anAs a rich entrepreneur resources, you are allowing entrepreneurs to develop their potential, China's economic development is no problem, but you want to treat. Governments do not support this today, tomorrow to support that. Not old 36 today, tomorrow the new article 36, as long as one is enough: the same. You have only strengthened the protection of property rights, alike in all aspects, EnterpriseWill have long term plans, only to upgrading and innovation in research and development to invest can make it here safely, and China's economic growth. We can see now, entrepreneurs selling their own business, apply for a foreign passport. This is how long-term plans to upgrade your own enterprises and products? So I think we need to improveProperty conservation, conscientiously change the enterprises operating environment, of which there is very important, to serious tax cuts, reduce the burden on enterprises, not reduce, but tax cuts, government revenue share of the GDP during the last a dozen years rising, where money is coming from? Is, of course, and people from the business receives. Government money to do what? Cast iron, the GovernmentWhere to vote, we see is tail rot works, is the serious overcapacity. Minister Li and I are very sorry, but I say these things like policy development is not the same as the idea of, I'm just from primary observation. Government investment will be inefficient. Tax, and return the funds to the common people, can help the economic shift from investment-driven consumption of our country. EnterpriseCan find more effective investment channels, better investment projects, rather than the Government to invest in. So I think the current situation is very severe, but this grave is not necessarily a bad thing. In the face of difficulties we can change, go back more than 30 years ago by Deng Xiao-ping's developing road of reform and opening up, I have full confidence in China's economy is. Of course this timeFocused on reform of the internal system of reform and opening up and the internal opening, can be created only on the opening of a new investment opportunity, in order to create new job opportunities, only the reform in order to give full play to the enthusiasm of entrepreneurs, workers, farmers, and not simply rely on the initiative of the Government. We can rely on the enthusiasm of the 1.3 billion people out of the Woods. Business community said the last sentence, to give up magicThink, starting from today, focus on ideas and thoughts on how to speed up the restructuring and upgrading. How to do it you are the expert, I'm here to do is appeal decision
SWTOR Credits, calling for social work, changing ideas, back to the reform and opening up, China's economic development potential is far from being exhausted. If we are able to continue reforms, continued to open up China's economy for a decadePeriod of high growth, I think that is guaranteed, thanks! 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